Weather's Impact -- What's left of winter 2012
By WXedge Staff on February 24, 2010, 12:00am
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This isn't at all what we expected winter to be.
"I'm forming a group of snow lovers anonymous," joked Storm Team 8 Meteorologist Gil Simmons.
"But I know the group out there -- the commuters -- they love this so at least someone's happy."
And happy is putting it mildly. For many people this warmer than normal season is a welcome relief, but it could serve as a springboard for problems down the road.
"For us here in Connecticut, we have been seeing very warm temperatures in times of the year when its not supposed to be warm," Storm Team 8 Meteorologist Steve MacLaughlin said.
From issues with mold to battling bugs, nature's system of checks and balances has taken a hit. In a normal winter extreme cold snaps typically keep mosquito populations at bay. Not this time around. And a warm-up favors a boost in ticks and fleas in the coming months. But these aren't the only potential hurdles that may pop up.
"We haven't had a lot of snow, kind of holding the run off when we get into spring, so if we all of a sudden get into a very dry pattern -- we are going to start to see our precipitation amounts fall under where we should be -- which if that holds further out that could mean maybe a dry summer," Simmons said, promotiong problems with things like ground water levels and brush fires.
For the lower 48 this is the fourth warmest January on record.
"What we see is a relatively mild winter; that is, most of our action happens in a very short amount of time," MacLaughlin said.
In Connecticut, the numbers are eye-opening. Through early February total snowfall in Hartford, including that of the October Nor'easter, measured 19.1 inches. Compare that to last season when the city saw 79.9 inches, well above the seasonal average of 27.8 inches.
"As temperatures are warmer across Connecticut we tend to get a very, very wet winter," MacLaughlin said. "But that one month where it is cold enough for temperatures to be below freezing -- that's the one that really gets us."
The comparison is witnessed in other ways as well.
"It's a dramatically different look on the weather maps, not only here in this country but in the North Atlantic," Simmons said.
The focus is on the NOS -- North Atlantic Oscillation -- a pressure pattern in the North Atlantic.
"Last season it was what we call 'negative' and this season it's been pretty positive," Simmons said, and positive typically points to a weather pattern that is fast moving.
"So far this season all the storms have moved right over us or just inland in the Great Lakes, and that drags in the warm air off the ocean," Simmons said.
But despite the mild conditions, a bout of frigid air isn't farfetched.
"Of course the icy season is predominately in the winter," Meteorologist Erica Grow said.
That makes sense. Even a passing cold snap can spell trouble on our roads.
"Here in Connecticut we can have icy conditions basically anytime of year except the summer," Grow said. "In the spring you can get a late cold spell, or in the fall you can get an early cold blast."
And once it sticks the ice can last for a long time whether you realize it or not.
"Areas that are in direct sunlight will melt much more quickly than areas in shadow, and that's a big problem people have with black ice, is that when they get to an area where there is a shadow is that patch of road is still icy and not just wet, so you have to be very careful," Grow said.
The same holds true for ice on our waterways.
"Water takes a lot of time to heat and cool as well," Simmons said, "so ice can outlast the cold air temperature for a long time after. You can have that ice evidence there for a long time."
But lucky for us time is on our side.
"There is always a possibility for ice to form in February into early March, but we've already passed the typical coldest part of winter," Simmons said.
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