First 90 Day In CT for 2012?

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By Gil Simmons on April 12, 2012, 12:00am

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ECMWF says it will get hot in here!

Well, Well.....that first 90 degree day could be here before you know it!

I got up this morning (2AM) and looked at the ECMWF model run from 00z and it was quite warm. It has been since yesterday. The GFS has been fighting a cold front for Sunday Night - Tuesday right around our area in yesterday's run and the 00z run to some extent. The GFS has been warming each run and now agrees with the ECMWF as of the 12z run today. Tremendous warming at all atmospheric levels.

Here are some interesting points to make about this 90 degree potential for inland Connecticut on Monday 4-16-12.

  • Front stays north of Connecticut
  • Heat builds starting Sunday
  • 850mb temperatures around 15c Monday
  • Thickness near 5700m
  • Heating from sunny skies.

The issues that could limit heating to 90 degrees are:

  • Wind direction a bit south for my liking - 210-230 degrees (Westerly=warmest)
  • Cloudiness from upstream convection
  • slim chance front slips south (5%)
  • Long Island water temps are still chilly

The GFSX MOS data has even come around with a HOT solution that I can't ignore! Here is a snapshot of the actual raw data for KBDL for Monday 4-16-12 from the 12z run 4-12-12

 

This raw model data has 86 degrees for the high now on Monday. Well above the last few runs.

Again, I am writing this on Thursday afternoon 4-12-12 and so much can change. That is the whole point of writing this....changing for the warmer so far!

We shall see if KBDL (Bradley Field) reaches 90° Monday. The first 90° day for 2011 happened on May 27th!

Check back for updates! Oh and maybe you should find a fan too?

**Update: 2:30PM Friday: MOS GFSX guidance has 85 for the high at KBDL for Monday. 850mb temps max out at 14.6° which is a bit lower than the run 24 hours ago.

**Update: 8AM Monday 4-16-12....guidance still on track. Wind direction could be influential from the S-SW...but I still think subsidence will help make up the difference for Northern Connecticut. We should have an idea on the actual temperature max today around 5PM.

 

***Update Monday 2PM 4-16-12 90 degrees reached at Bradley Field at 13:51PM local! This now is the official first day reaching 90 locally for 2012! I love it when detailed weather analysis pays off! Another event first tipped off by the ECMWF 6 days in advance!

-Gil

P.S. We have had temperatures this warm in the past before, check out this video here: http://wxedge.com/articles/20120202this_week_in_wx-april_16th-17th_2002:_hot_spell

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Gil Simmons

Town: New Haven, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

Articles: 636

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