Storm Chasing: The Risks Are High
By Stephen Barabas on April 13, 2012, 9:39am
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In a last minute decision on Wednesday, I decided to book a flight to Kansas City, Mo in order to chase Saturday's possibly historic severe weather outbreak with a friend of mine.
Boy, am I glad I booked that flight now!
Models generally agree that a mixture between inbound moisture flow from the Gulf, a screaming low and mid-level jet, and high CAPE values, along with a 7.5 degree Celsius lapse rate . . . will be conducive for a severe weather/tornado out break in the central plains.
Storms are expected to fire ahead of the dry line toward Saturday evening through west-central Oklahoma and Kansas. Storms will quickly turn to supercells and will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds and strong, long lived tornadoes.
One of the risks involved is that some weather models don't show storms firing until late evening, toward dark. BUT, with the amount of energy available, a 90-110kt mid-level and 60kt low level jet, the dry line pushing east and the environmental cap eroding, it is likely that storms will be firing in the evening (4-5pm).
More updates to come tonight and through this weekend.
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