Rain, Rain Come Our Way

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By Gil Simmons on April 18, 2012, 12:20pm

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120 hr (3hr) qpf from 12z 18 April 2012.

A quick update for the latest trend on 12z model data for the upcoming shot at rain.

I do not like what I am seeing. There are two issues developing for CT to get the heavier rain that has been previously depicted in recent model runs. 

1. The NAM and GFS are allowing the northern frontal band to move through a bit faster and a bit more east as the Atlantic ridge breaks down more. Sure, this will deliver some showers later Saturday Evening and early Sunday...but as rails for a train, the rails are going to be too far east for the rain train to move up over Connecticut.

2. Low pressure surface through 500mb along the Northern Gulf Coast lags behind the main frontal band. This causes a slower movement along the front and a track to the East.

The chart above shows the axis for heavy QPF with the red line. The orange circle shows the area of heavy QPF in recent runs. This is a big change and needs to be monitored for future trends.

Remember my line...when in drought, it is tough to get out! 

For this mornings video discussion, CLICK HERE.

As we say...stay tuned! -Gil

Oh and rain dances are appreciated!

**Update (9:30pm): Just looked at 18z....faster, east and less as picked up in the 12z run!

 

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Gil Simmons

Town: New Haven, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

Articles: 611

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