More Snow in the Forecast?
By Quincy Vagell on April 25, 2012, 11:52am
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Click here for the updated article, including new 12z GFS data
The WRF has been hitting parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey with a swath of wet snow as we head into Saturday. Even though the details have fluttered, it is interesting to see this.
The 6z was the most impressive, but even the latest 12z run has marginal support for some wet snow, to our south and west of all places!
The 12z here has a surface low pressure system passing south of the Delmarva, with just enough cold air in place to spit out some snow for our friends in the upper mid-Atlantic states.
Compared to other models, the WRF is definitely the "snowiest" and seems to be the aggressive outlier. The GFS has a similar surface picture, although the low pressure center is much weaker, in return giving very low precipitation amounts. Given the time of the year and the sun angle, light precipitation with this setup will probably be just rain. However, if heavy precipitation falls and enough evaporational cooling takes place, snow is still possible.
The ECMWF is even weaker than the GFS, with essentially no precipitation east of the Appalachians.
Could snow happen? Yes, but not only are the odds very slim, but everything has to come together just right.
Here's the 6z GFS...we see cold air in place across the Northeast and a low pressure system scooting through the mid-Atlantic states. In the blue zone, temperatures would marginally support wet snow, IF everything comes together just right.
We'll see how the 12z GFS and ECMWF handle the forecast!
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