Who Do You believe? Last June Weekend Heat Wave
By Ralph Fato on June 28, 2012, 9:08am
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While I have been impressed with the GFS since April, sometimes it does tend to have things too cool. On the other hand, the NAM model tends to have a slightly warm bias.
As you can see from the latest 6z runs, NAM brings mid 90s into Connecticut on Friday, but GFS keeps the entire state in the 80s all 3 days except for Litchfield County. The Euro agrees with the GFS.
The GFS did have Tropical Storm Debby go over Florida from 2 weeks ago while the other models and NHC had it going towards Texas or North. GFS did get the below normal temps for June right while Euro showed it too warm.
Speaking of which, this next batch of heat could keep the monthly average temperature above normal, making it 15 straight months. It's a shame because when we look back, we won't realize 4 days of above normal heat did it, while the rest of the month was below normal/normal and chilly.
As for this weekend, the 4000' level above us will be near 20C (like last time), the surface will warm (like last time) BUT, dew points will be low (unlike last time), so I'm not expecting it to be worse or as hot as the last heat wave. I'm really not impressed with this one.
Short lived again... back to the normal/below normal pattern after this weekend.
Normal high for the coast will be low 80s next week.
Normal low is mid 60s.
Normal high for interior is mid 80s
Normal low is low 60s.
Great Source for different Models: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
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