Heat Today - Severe Weather Tomorrow
By Gil Simmons on July 17, 2012, 6:45am
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A tough weather day today with high temperatures and dew points making for very high heat index numbers. I think we have a shot at getting up to the record which is 97 for KBDL. 850 temperatures are forecast to be around 21 to 22 degrees Celsius!
I am getting concerned for severe weather tomorrow. Surface heating and the approaching cold front will clash over our area. CAPE values are forecast high...especially with heating.
The SPC agrees with an elevated threat for our area too!
Two limiting factors are less than 50KT of wind aloft and the influence of maritime air in the SW flow ahead of the front.
I am looking away from the NAM recent model runs in reference to Friday. The NAM wants to generate a wave on the front with pretty good support aloft and spread rain our way for Friday morning. I can't jump on this solution yet. GFS builds a stronger high down from the North-Northeast!
High pressure is expected to build in this weekend. The lapse rate will be steep with cooler air aloft and this could pop some pretty good diurnal cumulus each afternoon.
Click my video for the latest discussion!
**MIDDAY UPDATE: The trend still seems on track based on updated 12z model output. I think the main round will be 1PM-7PM Wednesday. I also see the potential for a wave developing on this front later tomorrow...I have seen this set-up enhance severe potential in the past. Again, heating and maritime influence will be key during the midday hours prior to the frontal slope arriving. LI looks really negative and CAPE should be up! STAY TUNED and stay with wxedge.com and wtnh.com for updates! -Gil
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