Nice Weather Tomorrow... But, Then What?
By Erica Grow on August 18, 2012, 8:57pm
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Depending on where you live in Connecticut, you either had a dreary Saturday or a gorgeous day (or, a day that started rough and ended well). Tomorrow, everyone in our state will have picture-perfect weather to look forward to, thanks to an area of high pressure moving in from the west. You can see the high, centered near the Michigan/Ohio border, which will slowly slide toward us overnight and into tomorrow. The high will bring us sunshine, of course, but with a north breeze keeping a continental airmass overhead, we'll enjoy low humidity as well.
The workweek doesn't look quite as nice as Sunday's weather. The front that moved through is stalling out, due to areas of low pressure riding along the boundary. You can see one low on the map, very close to the fork of Long Island. More low pressure "waves" will make their way up toward us from the Southeastern US, as the quasi-stationary trough remains over the Great Lakes region dipping as far south as the ArkLaTex during the first half of the workweek.
The models are in consensus with the placement of this synoptic 500mb trough, but there is some variability with the waves of low pressure. The GFS shows a vort max moving northward through Connecticut on Monday after 18Z, bringing a few showers through Tuesday morning. The Euro shows the same vort max, but missing Connecticut by about 100 miles to the east. Still, the Euro gives us a shower chance through Tuesday. The NAM also has a scattering of showers on its output, but the vorticity max isn't as well-defined on the lee side of the trough as it is on the other models.
The GFS and Euro are in agreement that the synoptic trough will lift to the northeast by Wednesday, and in doing so, it will not bring the full force of cooler air into New England. The passage of the trough will trigger a few showers and storms, but the data (especially Euro) doesn't show much in the way of QPF. After that, a zonal flow briefly sets up here, bringing sunshine back and keeping the humidity low.
Overall, the temperature outlook is at or BELOW normal for the entire week... and beyond, I believe. If you want to read more about the cooler August weather, you can check out this article I wrote a couple weeks ago!
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