Hello...Isaac? Some Track Talk Too!
By Gil Simmons on August 21, 2012, 1:09pm
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I am expecting Isaac to become a tropical storm later today. As tropical depression number nine, it is forecast to continue on a western track. Sea surface temperatures are warm across the Northern Caribbean and should work with a light shear environment for some strengthening over the next couple of days.
There will be an interesting interaction with this storm and the topography of Puerto Rico, Haiti, Dominican Republic and Cuba 72-120 hours out.
The image above shows various computer model forecast tracks over time, thanks to tropicalatlantic.com. The bottom red circle is an area of pretty good agreement of many models. The spread is highlighted by the double sided arrow over Florida. I circled a question mark with an area that I think will end up as the likely spot later this weekend for a track. Of course this is many days away and the official forecast will shift.
Let's look at the official forecast from the NHC on the next slide!