Winter 2013 Outlook
By Steve MacLaughlin on September 4, 2012, 8:12pm
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Let me begin by saying that I loathe winter outlooks. I am not smart enough to forecast out that far. Most people are not. Even in January, it's impossible to know what the next three months will hold in this part of the world.
But it seems that a lot of viewers have been curious about the upcoming winter in recent weeks and it's made me think about it a lot more than I normally would. Since Labor Day has now passed, I figure, what the heck...why not? Of course, this comes with the massive disclaimer that I don't actually believe in seasonal forecasts, but it's kind of fun to look forward.
So...will we see a repeat of last winter? No. Absolutely not. It is statistically impossible to have another winter that is so off-the-charts easy and mild. Okay, I lied. Yes, it is actually possible, but the odds are so small, I can mathematically put them at near-zero.
So...will we see a repeat of the 2010-2011 winter? No. Absolutely not. It is statistically impossible to have another winter that is so off-the-charts snowy. Okay, I lied. Yes, it is actually possible, but the odds are so small, I can mathematically put them at near-zero.
So, if we won't see a repeat of last winter and we won't see a repeat of the one before last year (or the one before that), what does that leave? Well, statistically, that would leave us with a normal winter...right down the middle. Of course, statistics and reality don't always match up - Before last year we had two of the worst winters ever back-to-back...a statistical impossibility...but it happened.
What does the Climate Prediction Center think? The image above is the outlook for January, February and March that was put out in August and will be updated each month before the winter.
The bottom map is the precip forecast and you can see our forecast is for exactly "normal" amounts of precip. But the real story is the upper map. This is the temperature forecast and it shows an above-normal winter. You would see the same forecast if you add in December as well.
So again...seasonal forecasts are very tough and very general - but if the Climate Prediction Center is correct, we'd see a normal amount of precip and probably still plenty of snow, but enough rain to keep snowfall totals below where they should be in an average year.
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