Is this in our future?
By Richard Sparago on September 14, 2012, 8:26pm
Use your ← → (arrow) keys to browse more stories.
Next weekend, Fall arrives. That's a great time of year in New England, the colors are vibrant and the air is crisp. But most people don't ask, "Hey, are we going to have a bad fall this year?" When Fall comes, many people start to wonder about the coming winter! The meteorologists at WTNH don't put a lot of stock in long-term forecasts, with good reason. One point about the winter of 2012-2013 is becoming clear though: signs are pointing to an El Nino winter for us.
However, that can mean two very different things in the Northeast. A strong El Nino means mild temperatures and little snow for us, while a weak El Nino means the opposite. We don't know how strong the El Nino will be, but let's quantify just how significant the weak/strong impact is on our weather.
You can look at an interesting graph of the average snow departures from normal in El Nino winters since 1950 by clicking here (Accu Weather produced the graph). Let's look at a few local highlights:
City Snow in strong El Nino Snow in weak El Nino
New York -6% +23%
Bridgeport -16% +24%
Boston -29% +31%
Hartford -16% +23%
It's pretty clear that a weak El Nino will give us our fair share of snow. Another factor may contribute to our Winter. I read an article about the impact of the increased melting of the polar ice caps this summer. The increased melting will allow more water to come to the surface, and water holds more heat than ice, which allows solar warmth to reflect back out into space. With warm surface water more abundant, increased temperature contrasts between cold winter air and the polar ocean's surface will create more instability than normal, leading to more and higher-intensity storms. Put this together with the possibility of a weak El Nino...I'll stop there!
I'm in favor of the weak El Nino. How about you?
Use your ← → (arrow) keys to browse more stories.
