Tornado & Wind Damage Potential Today
By Sam Kantrow on September 18, 2012, 9:47am
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It's no joke, and just because the dog days of summer have passed, it doesn't mean we can't get very strong storms across the state. The image above shows the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the area highlighted according to the Storm Prediction Center. Here's more info on that:
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN U.S. FROMCENTRAL AND ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND SSWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
...EASTERN STATES...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW TWO DISTINCT UPPER TROUGHS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN STATES TODAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER LA/MS IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY AND RESULT IN A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS THIS MORNING SHOW WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG AN AXIS FROM WV INTO EAST TN. OTHER
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE CAROLINAS
INTO GA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE AREAS OF
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NC/VA. NORTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL BE INITIALLY LIMITED BY THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER PA. HOWEVER...RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN
PA/NJ INTO SOUTHEAST NY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE RISK
AREA. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ALONG A CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE DC-BWI-PHL-NYC AREAS. HERE...EFFECTIVE HELICITY
VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 FAVORS THE RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATION.
NEVERTHELESS...THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR WILL BE MONITORED FOR
TRENDS SUGGESTING A GREATER RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK.
