Some Rain, Cooler Temps, and Snow Talk

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By Sam Kantrow on October 7, 2012, 10:06am

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Gooooooddd morning, and a happy Sunday to you!  We all got to wake up this morning to lots of sun and very cool temps.  Now a low pressure system approaches, clouds continue to build in, and rain is on it's way.  According to GFS and HRRR, precip is going to get heavier as the day moves on.  The models are indicating a relatively weak shortwave disturbance rolling through this afternoon, giving us the lighter showers.  Finally around dinnertime, a stronger shortwave will roll through, causing the heavier rain to come.  Dinnertime will not be the best if you've got to walk into a restaurant, so make sure you grab that umbrella before you head out the door. 

As this low continues to track Northeast, our winds will start to come out of the southwest.  That's usually a warm weather direction, but it will be to little to late, with a trough of high pressure building in overnight.  Expect the temps by tomorrow morning to be really cool, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some scattered frost for the hilly towns by tomorrow morning.  Tomorrow will feature high pressure, but cooler temps.

The latest model runs indicate some sort of low developing off the coast, that could potentially cause rain for Tuesday, but we'll have to keep a close eye on the 12z runs to see how likely that is.  As we move forward to Wednesday, a low tracks to the north of us, keeping us in the "warm sector" for that day.  Warm is relative, because we'll only top out in the upper 60s.  The cold front associated with this upper level low will pass over us overnight Wednesday night into Thursday.  The cool thing about this is that it's moving towards us during the coolest time of the night, and 850 temps and the 540 line are east enough that if surface temps were cooler, we could see snow!  Because the ground temps are expected to be in the 40s, it's very doubtful that we'll see any snow.  I wouldn't be surprised if people living in the high elevation towns in NW CT see a few flakes mix in, but it won't accumulate!

Have a great day, and I'll see you tomorrow on GMCT at 5am (filling in for Gil)!

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Sam Kantrow

Town: Hamden, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

Articles: 650

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