Watching the Tropics Near Florida

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By Quincy Vagell on October 7, 2012, 3:55pm

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A disturbance over the Bahamas is being tracked for possible development.

Aside from Nadine and the short-lived Oscar, the tropical Atlantic has been fairly quiet over the past month or so. However, there are some signs that something may be trying to develop to the southeast of Florida.

Discussion:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has highlighted a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation for the area of unsettled activity. The forecast models are running predictions on this system, labeling it as 97L.
The models are in good agreement with low pressure initially tracking northwest, but things become very unclear more than 2-3 days out. Some of the models turn the system to the northeast, while others have it drifting to the southwest. Given that the system is weak and there is a lot of shear, especially on the north side, tropical development is not likely at this point. With that said, it still bears watching.

If this system can better organize, the models will likely come into better alignment with their forecasts. At this time, it's really tough to say exactly what will happen, but either way, it's several days away from the United States coastline.

Stay tuned to WXedge.com for all the latest details.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

Articles: 1306

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