Upcoming Storm to Bring High Surf
By Mike Moran on October 24, 2012, 2:14pm Last modified: October 25, 2012, 6:17pm
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To whet your appetite, here is a picture from November 2010 taken at Matunuck,RI. The setup was an intense nor’easter stuck under a block and sitting about 250 miles east of Cape Cod. The wave forecast models (Wave Watch 3 and Surfline.com’s LOLA model) had forecast 0-1 feet, as the shore faces south and the primary swell was from the east-northeast. Either the model missed the ability of the swell to refract around the islands, or perhaps the southeast fetch on the far east side of the storm.
There is a wicked stew brewing of T.S. Sandy, a negative NAO and a forecast negative tilt trough to our west. As we watch models and experts today (October 24), it is agreed it will be a day or two before a consensus begins to appear as to the fun that might develop. We might have some real excitement.
Along with the standard weather geek interest in all things extreme, I enjoy surfing. I learned and got addicted to it inCalifornia, then moved to Connecticut years ago. Because the westerlies that blow in our mid latitudes blow from the west (duh), the waves in our patch of Atlantic ocean most often are heading away from our coastline as they head for Europe and Africa. You may have seen video of Garrett McNamara’s world record, 91-foot wave in Portugal last year at this time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58a9xYOweU8
His wave was from a storm which developed in the wake of our October 2011 historic snowstorm. My friends and I surfed waves from that same storm inRhode Island– they were only about six feet. They win, we lose. Occasionally, though, we get a set up for strong winds and long fetch that favors Southern New England and makes the few of us surfers in Connecticut get all buzzed up. When I see maps like the ones before us right now, I get all fired up. The GFS scenario that takesSandyslowly into the slot between Hatteras and Bermuda, would bring epic surf toNew Englandsurfers. Some of the most memorable swells for surfers inSouthern New England(ex. Hurricane Bill in 2009, Fabian in 2003) were spawned by tropical storms on that path.
This time, however, the forecast size of the storm could really put things over the top. The largest surf ridden today does not come from even the most intense tropical cyclones, but rather from large baroclinic events – like the great winter storms that form in the Gulf of Alaska and in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica. The Wave Watch 3 model as of 12Z 24 October has an enormous area of high seas – fifteen feet or more from Puerto Rico to Florida to Newfoundland, with a patch of 45-feet plus larger than the State of Connecticut. So- if you are a surfer and reading this, time to get some rest, and time to make some holes in your schedule next week. Oh, and I should add that the sort of surf coming is not for beginners. Large waves, rip currents, rocks and cooling water temperatures will make for very dangerous conditions. Know your limits. If you go for a look, stay on high ground. Sets of large waves can cause surprising surges of water that have been known to sweep people into the sea and to their death.
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