Next Weekend Storm?

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By Ryan Koschmieder on November 11, 2012, 11:57am Last modified: November 12, 2012, 5:35pm

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This has been going on for a few days now and I have to speculate. The CMC 0000utc model as of today (Nov. 11th, 2012) has a coastal low steering close to the Connecticut area sometime real late Friday night, saturday morning of next week. This model shows in its progression an ocean disturbance approaching New England, but then getting kicked out to sea by the cold front that comes through early next week. In its passage a disturbance develops down near the Georgia/ South Carolina border thursday, tracks up the coast and redevelops off the coast of Southern New England by early next weekend. The CMC hints this, but the 6z GFS really struggles to put this all together. The 6z GFS hints at a disturbance developing off the southeastern coast late next week, but kind of just has it stalling out off the southeastern coastline before it makes a move up the coast, appearing to move out to sea. Overall this speculation is way too early to be definitive, but worth mentioning! I'd be curious to see what the 12z models have to show and so forth to see if we can see a similar pattern in the runs. Until then its fun to speculate that perhaps next weekend we could be seeing another round of a wintry mess for us in Connecticut, but its just to early to tell. Alot depends on whether we see the NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation) start to go negative for next weekend, which it appears it should. This could allow for this storm system to really bomb off the coast as it nears our area. We will just have to see!

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Ryan Koschmieder

Town: Groton, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since November 2012.

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