Storm may move a lot of seawater around next week

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By Mike Moran on November 13, 2012, 2:05pm Last modified: November 15, 2012, 9:30am

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ECMWF forecast for Tuesday, November 20th, 2012.

It looks like the pattern that turned Sandy up and in, and that trapped last week's nor'easter into a slow motion snow maker will be with us again next week.  The models are showing a potential storm that will find itself off our coast and caught under an upper air block... while moving slowly yet again.  This storm likely won't be as windy as Sandy for us in Connecticut, nor as wintery as last week's "surprise," but it may be very serious business.  This afternoon's EMCWF (sweepstakes winner for early accuracy on our last two storms) shows a monster with over 1,000 miles of fetch for strong easterly winds aimed right at the coastline which has lost all it's dune protection. Check out the purple streak on the picture above.  The long fetch may persist for three days or so.  The Wave Watch 3 model has seas in excess of 35 feet off our shores again.  Some good news - only a half moon, so "neap" tides (least extreme) next week.

A storm with a similar setup in March 1962 damaged or destroyed 45,000 homes in New Jersey. Whew!

The day before Sandy hit, I went surfing in Matunuck, Rhode Island.  At that time, the center of Sandy was east of the North/South Carolina border. The waves were big, but nothing like they would be the next day.  The currents in the ocean were impressive - it seemed that all of the Atlantic was headed westward.  It was mediium tide, yet the ocean was already above the normal high tide mark.  Big storms move a lot of water!  Pay attention to next week's storm if you live near salt water.

oh, and Southern New England surfers... you know the drill.  See if you can get some time off (and be careful).

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Mike Moran

Town: Woodstock, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since October 2012.

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