The Weekend Chill Is Here

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By Sam Kantrow on November 24, 2012, 8:06am Last modified: November 25, 2012, 8:36am

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Well for those of you who got to have a 4 day weekend, you are the lucky ones who got to see two great days before things change BIG TIME!  Thursday and Friday were beautiful, sunny, above average temps, and with little wind.  The cold front that passed this morning has brought us the winds of change, and things are going to go from October weather, to December weather really quickly!

As the day progresses today, the temperatures will go up a few degrees from this mornings lows...however, we will have lowering humidity, and increasing winds so it will feel like temps are dropping all day.  MOS data indicated 2 meter temps below 50 across the state...upper 40s right at the shore, and mid 40s inland.  We're advecting cold air today, and that won't allow us to get to our average highs for this time of the year.  The other big thing is the wind.  When temps get as cool as they are, a little wind goes a long way towards making us feel really chilly.  The above image shows a graph for calculating windchill, and I think tonight we'll be feeling like we're in the teens across much of the state!  Checking out the model grids, the winds at 850 mb are expected to be 40+mph, which means we could see gusts above 30 mph this afternoon, tonight, and into the day tomorrow.

Those windy and chilly conditions persist tomorrow, as a reinforcing shot of cold air makes its way down from Canada.  I don't think inland spots will peak above 41-42 degrees tomorrow, even though we'll have a good amount of sunshine.  At the shore, we'll hit 45 at best but that's it.

Starting off the work week, things improve slightly for Monday, with a good amount of sun, less wind, and a few degrees warmer, but we'll still only be in the upper 40s at best.

Finally, we've all been keeping a close eye on this system that will be on the approach on Tuesday.  the 0/6z model runs have started to agree on timing for the start of this storm.  It looks like we will have precipitation starting to fall around noon on Tuesday.  Here's where the models start to differ.  The type of precipitation is now the thing we're keeping a close eye on.  While there will be a great deal of chilly air in place at the onslaught of this storm, and the 540mb line is to our south, 850 temps are cold enough also to support snow...the question is really, will we be cold enough to see this snow?  I won't get into to much detail about this, but I'll tell you that the forecast model that seems to have the best consistency and least flip flopping these days is the Euro, or ECMWF.  This model is showing virtually no snow across the state.  The other long range models certainly paint a snowier picture.  Check out Quincy's latest article where he compares these models in question.

Have a great weekend, and enjoy the chilly weather with some hot cocoa!  

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Sam Kantrow

Town: Hamden, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

Articles: 651

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