Snowfall Forecast for Tuesday

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By Quincy Vagell on November 25, 2012, 1:55pm Last modified: November 26, 2012, 5:34pm

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As new data comes in, the forecast snowfall amounts for Tuesday are decreasing.

On Saturday, some computer models indicated that Connecticut might see a moderate snowfall. However, the trends Saturday night into Sunday indicate less snow.

A weak area of low pressure is expected to slide well south of Long Island Tuesday night. There should not be much moisture to work with, so an area of generally light snow will move from the mid-Atlantic region on eastward. It looks like only some light snow will graze Connecticut with minimal to no accumulation.
Snow showers or snow flurries may develop as early as Tuesday morning and continue into the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be chilly in the 30's, so any snow that does fall can accumulate. Mixed precipitation is not expected at this time. The snow will likely taper off Tuesday night before conditions improve on Wednesday.
Right now, it is not likely that anyone will get more than two inches out of this event. In fact, inland areas may see little or no snow at all. As the shoreline will be closer to the storm, an inch or two is possible there. This may create a few slick spots during the evening commute, mainly along and south of I-95.

This sounds like the forecast from November 7th to 8th:
The setup here is completely different. The autumn nor'easter earlier in November had a lot of moisture to work with and temperatures were colder than expected. In this case, even in the worst case scenario and temperatures stay below freezing, precipitation amounts should remain less than 1/4 of an inch. This means the snowfall cannot be more than two or three inches unless the storm shifts further north and/or becomes stronger. This is not anticipated at this time. (probability of more snow is less than 30%)

Why so little snowfall?
The computer models are showing a more progressive storm. This basically means the system is going to be less strong than some forecasts indicated, indicating that not as much precipitation falls. The new 12z computer model data is pretty much all in agreement with less than two inches of snow for everyone in Connecticut.
*The 12z ECMWF (Euro) and GFS models show less than one inch.
*The 12z GFS ensemble mean has between one and two inches.
*The 12z NAM shows around or less than one inch.

Further dicussion:
The computer models had been pretty inconsistent with this storm. The GFS flip-flopped all over the place and the ECMWF trended out to sea, came back north, only to shift back south again. I mentioned on Saturday that I was concerned about a trend further south and less intense with the storm and that appears to be the direction things are going. Although some more fluctuation is possible, time is running out and the model agreement now is as good as it has been.

Keep in mind that things can change. However, it's more likely that the final solution has no snow at all, than it is for the storm to strengthen, further north and produce more snow. I'm putting the forecast confidence at 70% that the entire state sees less than two inches. At this point, I do think there will be some snow flakes in the air.
There remains to be a 30% probability that things could change, either with no snow at all or possibly heavier snowfall amounts.

Stay tuned to for the latest forecasts and discussions.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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