Messy Model Madness To Come!

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By Sam Kantrow on December 14, 2012, 8:44am Last modified: December 15, 2012, 11:26pm

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I don't even know where to begin with the disappointment and uncertainty in these forecast models.  Pick and chose which one you want to look at, and the forecast for the next week will likely be very different from one model to the next.  It's important that although we do an 8-day forecast, in a situation like this, one small change in two days will make a huge change 6 days from now.  The frustrating thing in this situation is the timing, intensity, and temperature with the upcoming storm.  Here's what I can say for certain:

  • High pressure will remain in control today and into the day tomorrow.  This means sunny skies and chilly overnight lows.  If you got to check out the Geminid meteor shower last night, it was quite a site!  If you missed it, you'll likely be able to see it again tonight.  The cool thing is that you don't even have to go outside to check this out.  NASA streams this online, so check in frequently tonight and we'll have the link here on WXedge!
  • Precipitation will begin to fall late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  It will likely begin as snow for most of the state, with a mix along the immediate shoreline.

That's pretty much all I can say for certain at this point.  One thing that I can tell you is that the first round of this storm looks to change totally over to rain by later Sunday, and finally over to all rain by the afternoon on Sunday.  Here are a few concerns of mine:

  • The transition from snow over to rain might be a rough transition with cold temperatures at the surface.
  • My thoughts are that there could be a messy situation during the afternoon in the hilly towns, especially Northwest.
  • The forecast models have recently shown a solution with a bit more warm air, and additional moisture, but if this system trends colder it could give us quite a bit of snow before turning to rain.  I don't think this is very likely

Finally, things become a coin toss after the first round on Sunday.  I think right now, the precipitation through Monday looks to fall in the form of rain, but the GFS is showing a crazy picture with a low pressure system forming to the west, tracking across New York state, and then intensifying as it moves northeast, giving us a lot of rain for Tuesday into Wednesday.  This is as of the 06z run, but at the 00z run, it didn't show anything like this at all!  The euro paints a different picture as well!

Either way, what I can tell you for certain is that today will be nice.  Highs above average in the upper 40s.  Then tomorrow we'll see a bit more cloud cover, and cooler temps...but it will be nice still!  Then the second half of the weekend, especially Sunday morning will be tough to drive around!  We're also concerned with the potential of some icing as colder air sticks around (especially for the Northwest Hills).  Here's the estimated snowfall total according to Microcast:

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Sam Kantrow

Town: Hamden, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

Articles: 627

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