Messy Winter Weather to Come

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By Sam Kantrow on December 24, 2012, 7:24am Last modified: December 24, 2012, 11:02pm

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A lot of weather going on over the next week, including three systems that could potentially give us some snow, rain, sleet, and freezing rain.  Yes, I know that I covered basically every type of precipitation besides graupel and hail, but I'll explain more.

Storm #1 is tonight into tomorrow morning.  This storm is a piece of shortwave energy that's breaking off of a system in the midwest.  This system will form into a fast moving low that will move through tonight.  Before that, we're influenced by a weak high pressure across the region.  Here's the deal on this storm...it won't move through till this evening, so if you have holiday plans this afternoon (or some last minute shopping to do), you'll be good to go!  This system will be a fast mover, and a low will develop off the main systems low (that will be in PA) overnight tonight.  With the 540 line to the south of us, we should start off as snow across the state, quickly changing to a mix along the coast and finally over to all rain.  Inland things will start off as snow, and could end as some freezing rain.  The total accumulations are only expected to be an inch or two at the absolute most.  Total QPF is under a quarter of an inch with this system.  Once we get to the afternoon, things will clear out and by noon, we should only be left with a few flurries.

After this storm passes, high pressure moves in from the north and we'll stay mostly sunny for Wednesday.  As the day progresses, a storm will approach from the southwest.  So storm #2 will move in, and could cause some big issues.  Strong winds (50kt+) could be seen with this system, and coastal flooding is definitely a concern.  The track of this will totally dictate whether we end up with all rain, all snow, or a mixture of both.  At this point, it looks like a mostly rain event, with a wintry mix inland.  Inland we could start as some snow, changing to sleet and freezing rain early Thursday AM.  We'll keep a close eye on this system, because it could track farther south and cause a snowier solution.

Then sunny weather returns for the day on Friday, and into Saturday before another system moves in.  Storm #3 could become a noreaster, and could give us snow, but the forecast models aren't in agreement with this system.  The timing on this would be Saturday night into Sunday.  The EURO shows potentially heavy snow early Sunday, whereas the GFS shows most of this storm going out to sea!

Have a great day, and a merry Christmas.

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Sam Kantrow

Town: Hamden, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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