Potential Storm: Latest Video Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on January 22, 2013, 2:15pm Last modified: January 23, 2013, 9:50am

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Low pressure is forecast to pass south of New England Friday night, potentially bringing a period of snow to Connecticut.

Right now, it looks like the area will only see some light snow Friday night. The first half of the day should stay dry and with the current forecast, conditions would dry out and clear up for Saturday. As for snowfall amounts, it's early to say, but there could still be a light accumulation across the entire state.

The 00z Euro last night was still hitting the area hard with snow, as it was forecasting anywhere from about 6 to 12 inches across the state. The Euro ensembles were similar, but did keep the storm further south and east. The GFS and NAM were further southeast and the new 12z Euro that just came out followed suit.
What's happening is that the whole trough axis is being shifted east, allowing for a quicker moving system. Although the new model data still develops the storm offshore, the intensification happens too far east to throw back any heavy snow in our area. Earlier model runs had a deeper digging trough, which lead to a more SW to NE storm track, as opposed to a storm just sliding out to sea. 
With cold air in place, air temperatures could be in the teens to mid-20's during the snow, which when combined with 850mb temperatures below -10C, could yield 15:1 or 20:1 snowfall ratios. This means that 0.2" of liquid could drop 3 or 4 inches of snow, while it most situations it would typically mean closer to 2 inches.

Computer models aren't perfect...it's likely there will be adjustments to the forecast. However, current indications and the overall trends would favor a low impact storm late Friday with light amounts of snow for Connecticut. If the computer models were to continue the latest trends, most of the storm could just miss us entirely. On the other hand, if the models "flip-flop," which they are known for doing on occasion, then perhaps heavier snowfall amounts could be realized.

I still stand by my forecast from this morning that the probability of snow is >70%.

Stay tuned to WXedge.com for the latest analysis and discussions.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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