Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on January 23, 2013, 10:00am Last modified: January 23, 2013, 7:19pm

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Technical Discussion:

The core of cold air moves across the area today. Wind chills at 9 a.m. were between 0 and -5°F across all CT ASOS stations. MOS continues to lag behind with respect to severity of cold air, so have gone a few degrees below MOS highs for today and tomorrow. A weak disturbance skids south through the mid-Atlantic tonight and should increase clouds. Outside risk of a stray flurry, but did not include it in the forecast. The clouds may slightly cap low temperatures tonight, but still feel that some outlying areas could fall below zero. Friday morning has the potential to be very cold as high pressure passes directly overhead. Trended colder than the previous forecast, but may need to go even colder if trends continue.
As for the potential storm on Friday, it does not look like a big deal. Model consensus takes a weak low south of the area and does not develop the system until it is well east of New England. Thinking precipitation totals end up from generally 0.01 to 0.1 inches, which would mean a trace to possibly two inches. It should be plenty cold for good snowfall ratios, as we could see 15:1 or even 20:1. Clouds linger for Saturday and there may be lingering flurries, but am still not too confident with this.
A slow moderation in temperatures is expected by Sunday into early next week. The models are indicating a possibly light wintry mix on Monday with warm air advection. Will watch later trends to decide if precipitation should be added into the forecast. 

Today: Very cold, wind chills below zero through early afternoon. Highs in the teens.
Tonight: Clouds on the increase. Lows near zero inland, single digits on the shore.
Thursday: Clearing skies, but staying cold. Highs in the upper teens to mid-20's.
Friday: Flurries or light snow at night. Highs in the low to mid-20's.
---Possible snow accumulation: A trace to 2 inches state-wide.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the mid to upper 20's.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20's to lower 30's.
Monday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid-30's.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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