Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on January 25, 2013, 10:00am Last modified: January 25, 2013, 12:41pm

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Technical Discussion:

Two areas of low pressure are being watched today. One low in the western Great Lakes will give way to a weak coastal low near the Delmarva coast tonight. An area of generally light snow is advancing towards the Appalachians and will tend to weaken at the same time. A few flurries could be possible as early as 5 p.m., but expecting most of any very light precipitation to fall after 7 p.m. and all in the form of snow. With a low passing well south of Long Island, not much precipitation is expected to back-build into CT. The end result is occasional flurries overnight and perhaps a period of light snow. Most areas should end up with less than one inch, but liquid to snow ratios could be around 20:1 if not higher, so it won't take much liquid to drop some snow.
Skies clear out on Saturday, but a reinforcing shot of cold air will keep temperatures well below average. Sunday looks mostly sunny to clear with dry conditions aloft. With milder temperatures also working in, this should help temperatures approach 30 degrees inland and perhaps break freezing on the shoreline.
The next round of precipitation is expected by the second half of Monday. Models in fair agreement with some light overrunning precip reaching the area by 15-18z. Onset is a bit of a question mark, but if precip can overcome an initially dry boundary layer, light snow could move in by mid to late morning. This will need to be closely monitored as it could affect travel conditions. As the day wears on, warmer air advects aloft and changes precip over to sleet and perhaps some drizzle/freezing drizzle. Again, precip amounts don't look significant, but it doesn't take much snow/ice to cause problems on the roads.
A push of even milder air is then forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday. The computer models diverge greatly as the Euro squashes the ridge and begins to clear out conditions for Wednesday. The GFS is much milder and wouldn't bring a cold front through until at least Thursday morning. Given uncertainty and lean towards Euro, put showers in the forecast for Tuesday and kept Wednesday mostly cloudy. Also not so sure that the MOS temperatures in the upper 40's to lower 50's are realistic. If the timing of the front does slow and/or the ridge verifies stronger, this could happen, but the Euro doesn't think so. Also recall that the last forecast "warm-up" verified significantly cooler than forecast as clouds won out. This could very well happen again.

Today: Becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid-20's.
Tonight: Flurries and light snow after 5 p.m. Lows near 10 inland, teens on the shore.
---Expected snow accumulation: Generally 1 inch or less. Slight risk of up to 2 inches.
Saturday: Skies becoming partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid-20's.
Sunday: Sunshine and not as cold. Highs in the upper 20's inland, lower 30's shore.
Monday: A wintry mix developing by afternoon. Highs in the low to mid-30's.
Tuesday: Milder with a few rain showers. Highs in the low to mid-40's.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and mild. Highs in the mid-40's.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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