Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on February 5, 2013, 10:20am Last modified: February 5, 2013, 1:25pm

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Technical Discussion:

A pair of weak low pressure areas will impact the area over the next 24 hours or so. A few flurries and areas of light snow linger across the state through midday. Satellite imagery shows that we may see a few breaks in the overcast this afternoon. However, a second shot of flurries and/or light snow comes in late tonight into early Wednesday. Similar to this morning, could see some areas pick up a coating to one inch of snow. Skies gradually should clear out later in the day, allowing for temperatures to rise above freezing.
A brief break action comes on Thursday as high pressure is expected to set up just north of the area. This will set the stage for Friday...
Confidence in an East Coast winter storm is increasing for Friday, although the strength and impact from such a storm are still to be determined. Computer models have come into better agreement with two pieces of energy phasing or attempting to phase just southeast of New England. The Euro has been fairly consistent with bringing heavy snow to much of the state. The GFS has steadily been trending closer to the coast and with more precipitation, but still only showed light snow from the 06z run. The 12z NAM was similar to the GFS. 
Caution needs to be emphasized for the forecast. The set-up is still very delicate and will involve several ingredients coming into play just right for a major winter storm. A decent area of high pressure is forecast to be in place north of the area, so it's going to come back to how much phasing takes place. An amped up solution near the coast would yield heavy snow inland and a wintry mix near the shore, while a more progressive scenario might only mean light snow/precipitation. Both options need to be left on the table and given that the system is still 72 to 84 hours away, things can and will change. With that said, the precipitation probability has been increased to 70 percent in the forecast.
Conditions should clear out later Saturday and temperatures for both weekend days are expected to be near seasonable levels. 

Today: Areas of flurries and light snow, mainly early in the day. Highs in the lower 30's.
Tonight: Occasional light snow and flurries. Lows around 20 inland, mid-20's on the shore.
---Overnight snow accumulation: up to one inch.
Wednesday: A flurry possible in the morning, seasonable. Highs in the mid to upper 30's.
Thursday: Sunshine to start, then increasing clouds. Highs in the mid-30's.
Friday: Snow possible inland, wintry mix or snow at the shore. Highs in the low to mid-30's.
Saturday: Skies becoming partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 30's.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and seasonable. Highs in the mid-30's to around 40.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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