Possible Storm Scenarios for Friday

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By Quincy Vagell on February 5, 2013, 11:50am Last modified: February 6, 2013, 11:23am

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An upper level system swinging south from Canada may combine with a coastal storm to bring wintry weather to Connecticut for Friday into early Saturday.

With the storm being three days away, there are still several possible scenarios. The exact track and evolution of this complex weather set-up will determine exactly what type of precipitation and how much of it Connecticut receives.

Major storm scenario: If low pressure passes further northwest and completely phases with an upper level system, this would bring heavy precipitation and warmer air into Connecticut.
The end result would be a major storm with heavy snow and a wintry mix inland, but more of a wintry mix trending to heavy rain along the shoreline.

Significant storm scenario: If low pressure moves up the coast, but only partially phases with an upper level system, precipitation would still impact Connecticut, but more cold air would stay in place.
The end result would be a significant storm with mostly snow inland, but more of a wintry mix near the shoreline.

Minor storm scenario: If low pressure stays further offshore and does not phase with an upper level system, only light amounts of precipitation could impact Connecticut.
The end result would only be a minor storm with light snow and perhaps some mixed precipitation along the shoreline.

The reason for the uncertainty is that the computer models have been all over the place with their forecasts for this potential storm. The European (Euro) computer model has been pretty consistent with a major East Coast storm, with enough cold air in place for mostly snow inland and some mixed precipitation near the coast. While the GFS computer model had been showing a solution further out to sea, the latest run from this morning now shows a significant storm for the area. Although high pressure is expected to lock in cold air to our north, if the storm track is too close to the coast, warmer air would be drawn in.

The ensembles and other computer model forecasts also show a lot of variability, ranging from light snow to a storm that brings so much warm air into the area that precipitation might even change to rain.

Stay tuned to WXedge.com for the latest forecasts and discussions.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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