Quincy's Snowfall Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on February 6, 2013, 7:40pm Last modified: February 7, 2013, 7:20pm

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I am expecting heavy snow across the entire area Friday into early Saturday. This forecast is my best estimate based on all the data I have reviewed throughout the day.

I expect 12 to 20 inches of snow across most of the state.
-6 to 12 inches for Lower Fairfield County and the coastline further east.
-A bulls-eye of 20"+ across northeastern Connecticut. 

-Light snow breaks out around daybreak Friday.
--Snow becomes heavy during the afternoon hours.
---Areas near the shoreline may have a wintry mix of precipitation for several hours.

-Heavy snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches will cause very low visibility.
--Strong winds will combine with snowfall to create blizzard conditions.
---Coastal flooding is a concern as easterly winds may gust over 50 mph.
----Any wintry mix changes to heavy snow, even along the immediate shoreline. 

-Snow tapers off by daybreak across western Connecticut.
--Eastern sections may see periods of snow linger through midday Saturday.

There's high confidence in heavy precipitation, but a few details still make this a challenging forecast. An initially "warm" boundary layer may cause mixed precipitation or even a brief period of rain across far southern Connecticut. However, as low pressure rapidly intensifies and slows down southeast of Cape Cod, colder air filters in and changes everyone over to snow. Northeastern Connecticut is favored to be located in the deformation zone of heaviest snowfall. Here. several hours of 1 to 3 inch per hour snowfall rates are expected. 

The trickiest forecast is along the shoreline, but I think 6 to 12 inches is a safe call.
I'm actually leaning towards the higher end of that range, but given some uncertainty, I'll stick with that for the time being.

Stay tuned as I will have detailed updates throughout the day on Thursday.

Interact with me via Facebook and Twitter for my most up-to-date thoughts and forecasts.   

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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