Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on February 7, 2013, 10:15am Last modified: February 7, 2013, 10:59am

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Technical Discussion:

Today is the calm before the storm and all eyes shift to tomorrow.
The computer models are in overall agreement with the Euro being the most consistent. The GFS has wavered a bit, but it's the NAM which has literally flip-flopped drastically each run over the past couple of days.
Areas of light snow and flurries develop during the predawn hours on Friday. Occasional light snow continues through the morning, but as warmer air advects in, the shoreline may change to rain for several hours. Marginal temperatures may limit accumulations there, but inland areas could have up to an inch or two by noon.
Friday afternoon is when the storm really gets cranking. Low pressure east of the Delmarva rapidly intensifies as a transfer of energy takes place from a low pressure area over western Pennsylvania. It's this transition that may allow enough boundary layer warming to keep lower Fairfield County and the immediate coast a slushy mix, but then the storm shifts into a full-fledged blizzard...
Friday evening and night is when heavy precipitation surges into the area and temperatures gradually cool, right down to the shoreline. Potential exists for several hours of 2 to 3 inch per hour snowfall rates across central and eastern portions of the state. The heavy snow band will likely pinwheel right down to the coast and eastern Long Island. Throw in strong winds gusting to 50 MPH inland and 60 MPH near the shore and whiteout conditions will result.
There is still a small amount of uncertainty with this band of heavy snow.
Although the NAM is an outlier with pushing that band back into eastern New York state, it is still possible that the band may shift a bit further west. Will have to watch the interaction of two vorticity centers as they merge early Saturday. There is a slight risk the low pressure center could be pulled slightly closer to the coast, but given that the Euro has been so consistent with this not happening, I am taking the NAM guidance with a grain of salt and not leaning towards it.
Snow lingers into the first half of Saturday, especially across eastern sections. Winds stay on the strong side through much of the day. With a northerly component and some moisture aloft, expect temperatures to be significantly colder than MOS guidance.
As far as snowfall amounts, still thinking 12 to 20 inches for most of Connecticut. An area of locally higher amounts is still focused on the northeast hills. Slightly lower amounts are possible near the New York border and along the shoreline. Based on 12z GFS and Euro data, will decide if the 12"+ zone should extend southward to the southeast coast. Banding nature of snow may or may not produce some totals over 24 inches, but confidence is not high enough to include this in the current forecast.
The rest of the forecast is much quieter. Some light rain shower activity is possible on Monday and with marginal temperatures and a deep snow-pack, forecasts could trend colder to support a light wintry mix. 

Today: Mostly cloudy and tranquil. Highs in the upper 20's to lower 30's.
Tonight: Overcast. Flurries after midnight. Lows around 20 inland, low to mid-20's shore.
Friday: Light snow, becoming heavy by afternoon. Mixed precip at shore. Highs 28 to 34.
Friday night: Heavy snow, strong winds and blizzard conditions. Lows in the teens.
Saturday: Periods of snow tapering off by midday. Cold. Highs in the low to mid-20's.
---Total snow: 12 to 24 inches inland, 8 to 14 inches shoreline and near N.Y. border.
Sunday: Plenty of susnhine. Highs in the low to mid-30's.
Monday: Spotty drizzle or showers possible. Highs in the upper 30's to around 40.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the upper 30's to lower 40's. 

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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