Computer Models: How Much Snow?

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By Quincy Vagell on February 13, 2013, 12:00pm Last modified: February 14, 2013, 8:40am

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Computer model average snowfall forecast. (00z Euro, 9z SREF, 12z GFS/NAM/RGEM)

A storm system is forecast to develop south of Long Island tonight, bringing an area of light snow into portions of the state. The image above shows the average snowfall for each county, based on the computer model mean. (amounts may vary +/- 1")

-Light snow and flurries move into southern Connecticut between 6 and 10 p.m.
-Northern Connecticut sees less snow, with only a few passing flurries.
-Snow ends in all areas by 4 a.m. Thursday.

-Northern CT: Less than 1" of snow.
-Southern CT: Around 1", a few 2-3" totals possible along/SE of I-95.

The computer models are in pretty good agreement with some light snow tonight, although there are still a few details to resolve. The Euro continues to be dry, with less than 1" of snow for all areas. At the same time, the NAM/SREF still bring 2-3" totals to southeastern CT and a few ensemble members back moderate snow all the way up to the I-84 corridor.

Radar trends and observations through the afternoon will be key in determining just how far north snow will make it into Connecticut tonight.

Stay tuned to for the latest forecasts and discussions.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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