Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on February 16, 2013, 10:10am Last modified: February 16, 2013, 3:41pm

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Technical Discussion:

Low pressure develops along a frontal boundary tonight. Morning radar imagery combined with surface observations indicate some possible flurries during the day in a few spots. Little or no accumulation expected with light precipitation and temperatures near or above freezing.
Tonight, the computer models have come into better agreement with light snow. Favoring a GFS/Euro blend that lines up with the forecast from last night. Basically thinking 1-3" of snow for eastern CT with less than 1" in western sections. The NAM continues to keep most of the snow east, but that model has not be initializing as well as the other models with respect to actual observatons. With that said, it will still be a nowcasting game tonight as GFS shows heavier snow coming very close to SE CT. Either way, for continuity and confidence, will keep the forecast as is.
Flurries may linger into Sunday morning, but the big story will be the wind and cold. Temperatures stay below freezing during the day with wind chills in the teens. A cold night Sunday night could push the wind chill below zero if current forecasts hold.
A brief moderating trend is expected before the next round of precipitation on Tuesday. Models continue to show borderline critical thicknesses inland. Could either see some warm advection precipitation or weak redevelopment of low pressure near the coast. Either way, forecast favors a light wintry mix inland, but just rain showers near the coast.
Seasonably chilly, but tranquil weather should return for Wednesday and Thursday. 

Today: Mainly cloudy, a few widely scattered flurries. Highs in the mid-30's.
Tonight: Periods of light snow, especially in eastern CT. Lows in the low to mid-20's.
---Forecast snow accumulation: 1 to 3 inches, except less than 1" in western CT.
Sunday: AM flurries, then windy and cold. Highs in the mid-20's to lower 30's.
Monday: Mostly sunny skies, not as cold. Highs in the mid-30's.
Tuesday: Clouds. Light rain or a wintry mix at night. Highs in the lower 40's.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 30's.
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs in the upper 30's to around 40.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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