Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on February 19, 2013, 10:10am Last modified: February 19, 2013, 5:30pm

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Technical Discussion:
A surface warm front lifts through the area this morning, but with clouds in place and colder temperatures aloft, not expecting a major increase in temperatures. The forecast continues to play a few degrees cooler than MAV MOS. Rain showers on radar appear right on time with model guidance, reaching western CT by early afternoon. Precipitation type should begin as rain, but the higher terrain across northwest CT could see some sleet/snow mix in. Showers taper off around midnight and as the boundary layer cools, could see a changeover to frozen precipitation across much of the interior. With that said, marginal temperatures would support only perhaps a slushy accumulation.
As low pressure deepens over Maine and a vertically stacked low moves overhead, the result is variable cloudiness and windy conditions for Wednesday. Strong cold advection will cause temperatures to rise very little during the day and the forecast temperatures remain well below MOS guidance.
Have decided to keep some clouds and wind in the forecast for Thursday as low pressure is slow to exit the region. Model guidance shows another shortwave swinging around the closed low, but not expecting any precipitation.
Friday is the calm between weather systems and depending on the timing of an approaching low, skies could remain mostly sunny for a good chunk of the day. Will increase clouds in the forecast for Friday night, but this might need to be pushed back if trends continue.
The weekend shows snowy potential with fairly good model agreement at this time.  
Both the GFS and Euro show low pressure moving into the Great Lakes on Saturday and transferring energy to a coastal low. The Euro is more amplified at this time and brings heavier amounts of snow into the state.
Due to general model consistency over the past 24 hours and the fact that the Euro ensembles are also on board, increased the probability of snow to 60% on Saturday and 50% on Sunday. The timing appears to be late Saturday into Sunday morning, but for continuity and the fact that this storm is still about 5 days out, will introduce light snow into the Saturday graphic and possible light snow for Sunday.
Temperatures for the weekend are scaled back from the MOS guidance, as cloud-cover and precipitation are expected. 

Today: Afternoon light rain, may change to a mix inland. Highs in the low to mid-40's.
Tonight: Rain and light mixed precipitation ending around midnight. Lows 24 to 30.
Wednesday: Sunshine and clouds, windy and cooler. Highs in the low to mid-30's.
Thursday: Partly sunny skies, remaining breezy. Highs in the mid-30's.
Friday: Sunshine followed by evening clouds. Highs in the upper 30's to around 40.
Saturday: Light snow possible, especially late in the day. Highs in the mid-30's.
Sunday: Snow may continue through the morning. Highs in the mid to upper 30's.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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