Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on February 20, 2013, 10:00am Last modified: February 20, 2013, 4:54pm

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Technical Discussion:
Low pressure over Maine will keep partial cloud-cover and blustery conditions over the area for the next day or so. Radar imagery Wednesday morning and surface obs indicate a few stray flurries across the state. A few more of these could reach the area, mainly through midday. Otherwise dry conditions are expected for the balance of the week.
Clouds increase by Friday night and aside from subtle model differences, there is pretty good agreement going into the weekend.
Low pressure is expected to move into the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday, transferring energy to a coastal low near the Jersey Shore by Saturday night. The result is light snow or a wintry mix breaking out perhaps as early as Saturday morning, but heavier precipitation holds off until the nighttime hours.
Low pressure is modeled to rapidly develop just south of Long Island Sunday morning and the low could even slow down or stall out near Cape Cod. The current forecast track is too close to the area for all snow, so have changed the graphics to include a wintry mix inland and a change to rain along the shoreline.
Heavy precipitation in excess of 1" are possible for most if not all of the state. Climo based on such a storm track would favor a wintry mix in the inland hills and mainly rain near the coast. However, as low pressure passes east and cold air drains in, all areas would change to a heavy, wet snow before precipitation tapers off.
The 12z model suite today will be important to see if trends continue to lean towards a warmer, more amplified scenario, or if the models diverge away from that. Either way, confidence in at least some precipitation on both Saturday and Sunday is high enough to increase the probabilities to 70% for both days. 
Monday looks calm and the long-range forecast could include two more storm systems next week as a shift to a relatively active weather pattern looks increasingly likely.

Today: Sun and clouds, windy. A flurry or two possible. Highs in the low to mid-30's.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, wind chills as low as the single digits. Lows in the teens to near 20.
Thursday: Partly sunny skies, remaining breezy. Highs in the low to mid-30's.
Friday: Sunshine followed by evening clouds. Highs around 40.
Saturday: Light snow, changing to a mix inland, rain at shore. Highs in the mid-30's.
Sunday: A wintry mix or snow in the morning, windy. Highs in the mid to upper 30's.
Monday: Partly sunny skies, seasonable. Highs near 40.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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