Potential Wintry Weather

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By Stephen Gode on February 20, 2013, 6:24pm Last modified: February 21, 2013, 12:07pm

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Towards the beginning part of the weekend, an upper level low will track into the Great Lakes Region with an interacting shortwave digging around the trough and becomes negatively tilted over us. This indicates the potential for a strengthening surface low pressure system that could deliver significant precipitation.

Since, the ridge over the Southeast is relatively strong, this shortwave can track close to Connecticut and the system will be fairly progressive. Thicknesses would be relatively high for a marginal situation for mostly snow (more rain).

In the Hills of Litchfield and northeast Connecticut, there could be mainly wintry precipitation, which may mainly be in the form of snow. Besides the Hills, there seems to be more mild air working into the state to be mainly rain or a lengthened period/s of mixing.

The bulk of the precipitation could fall from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning.

Cold air damming will be out ahead of the approaching system for a start of mainly snow possible, especially over parts of the interior. Temperatures could be mild at the coast for very little, if any snow accumulation at the start. Light accumulations are possible inland at the start, and then rain may changeover over most of Connecticut. There can be some additional snow accumulation before the storm ends as colder air may work in the state, especially in parts of northern Connecticut. In parts of the Hills where cold air may be locked in for at least the majority of the event, there can be the potential for significant amounts of snow and mixing. A tight gradient may setup somewhere across the state from no snow accumulation to potentially significant amounts.

Even though the models seem fairly consistent at this point, there is a lot that can change. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts and discussions on WXedge.

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Stephen Gode

Town: North Haven, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since September 2012.

Articles: 51

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