Snow Storm or Rain Storm or...?

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By Zachary Duhaime on February 20, 2013, 7:30pm Last modified: February 22, 2013, 10:08am

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That is the million dollar question that I am trying to answer for this upcoming weekend’s coastal storm. Both the GFS as well as the very reliable Euro forecasting models do indeed show a fairly strong storm impacting the tri-state area come late on Saturday through midday Sunday. The exact track of this storm will be key in what type of precipitation this storm will bring.

Let me start off by saying this is a very complex system, it almost reminds me of the November nor’easter. With that storm, the track was not what the models originally showed therefore, as the storm intensified rapidly off the coast, it dragged in enough cold air to change the rain right back to heavy snow. This mostly occurred because of evaporational cooling, but will it happen again… probably not! Like I said before, the models have yet to show a clear indication on the precipitation type will be. Right now, if I had to put out an early call, I would say a mix of rain and snow changing to all rain at the shore with a mix changing over to mostly snow inland. But I still think even at the shore this should end as a least a little light snow.

So as I stated before, there is still a lot of uncertainty with the exact track with this storm. One thing I forgot to add was when the “phasing” time will be. Though I do NOT think this will be a repeat of the Blizzard of 2013, the southern and northern jet may yet again meet up and the two storms may “phase” and the timing of that is extremely crucial in forecasting what precipitation we get and how much of it!
And this is not the only storm I have been watching, there is another chance for a storm early next week and again at the end of the week and what about March 1st and 2nd… Let’s just say we are entering yet another very active winter weather pattern!

Stay tuned to WXedge.com as well as my Twitter page @zduhaimedmj for minute to minute updates on this latest winter storm threat and those that follow for southern New England.

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Zachary Duhaime

Town: Hamden, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since February 2012.

Articles: 69

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