Weekend Storm: Early Estimate

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By Quincy Vagell on February 20, 2013, 4:55pm Last modified: February 21, 2013, 12:08pm

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Based on the latest forecast data, there is a relatively high possibility of a storm impacting Connecticut this weekend. If the models are right, this could be a significant storm with heavy precipitation, gusty winds and localized flooding.

Early estimates: (Saturday night into Sunday morning)
---The northern hills may stay cold enough for mostly snow and some mixed precipitation.
---Most of the state could see a mix change to rain before going back over to some snow.
---Along the shoreline, mostly rain is currently expected. 

Both the 12z Euro and GFS were showing a fairly similar scenario with low pressure developing along the New Jersey coast and passing very close to the southern New England coast. The result is that warmer air moves in and changes most areas from snow or a wintry mix over to rain. However, as the low pressure center deepens, colder air works in and eventually changes most areas back to snow. It's across the hills of northwest and northeast Connecticut where both the Euro and GFS show the POTENTIAL for significant amounts of snow. At least some accumulating snow would also be possible across interior southern Connecticut. The other concern could be flooding, as the models are showing an average of about 1 to 1.25" of liquid equivalent precipitation falling. So even if the precipitation does not fall as snow, the storm could still be a high impact event.

Disclaimer:

The computer models have been fairly consistent with the overall evolution of this storm, but forecasts could still change. Stay tuned for all of the latest updates as new information becomes available.

WXedge Meteorologist Stephen Gode has a more technical discussion HERE.

Interact with me via Facebook or Twitter for more detailed information and forecasts:
 

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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