Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on February 21, 2013, 10:30am Last modified: February 21, 2013, 4:51pm

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Technical Discussion:
In the wake of low pressure moving east of Maine, a steepened pressure gradient results in some breezy conditions today. Temperatures should remain below average with 850mb temperatures around -10 to -11C. As high pressure noses in overnight, skies remain mostly clear, winds slacken off and temperatures should drop back into the teens. Interestingly enough, this may be the coldest night for at least a while...
Sunshine is expected to start the day before clouds increase Friday night. The overnight period looks dry, but the models bring some very light precipitation close to the SW corner of the state after midnight. Will keep the forecast dry for now.
Saturday is an interesting day as light precipitation is expected to break out, but high pressure lingers along the eastern New England coast. Some light wet snow or even rain could fall as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30's. Accumulation is not expected during the day, but the night is another story...
Models are in fair agreement for a wintry mix Saturday night. The coastline warms enough to change to all rain, but the very challenging aspect of this forecast is nailing down the interior. The GFS is the warmest, with very little accumulation around from the Massachusetts border. The Euro is colder, but keeps most of the heavy snow confined to just the high terrain of NW and NE sections. The NAM is the coldest, with the 12z and especially 06z runs showing a troubling forecast...both maps indicate the potential for 12"+ in the northern hills and even accumulating snows down to interior southern Connecticut...
The forecast graphics will remain the same, but keep in mind that details are very important. A slight shift in temperature, even just a degree or two, will be the difference between heavy, wet snow, a wintry mix and mainly rain. 
Precipitation tapers off as snow Sunday morning, especially near the Massachusetts border. That's where there could be several hours of snowfall, even if northern Connecticut does switch over to a wintry mix or even rain.
Skies clear for Monday before clouds increase ahead of the next system on Tuesday.

Today: Mostly sunny, breezy and chilly. Highs in the low to mid-30's.
Tonight: Mostly clear skies. Lows in the teens inland, around 20 shore.
Friday: Sunshine followed by evening clouds. Highs in the upper 30's to around 40.
Saturday: Wintry mix to rain, especially on the coast. Highs in the mid to upper 30's.
Sunday: A wintry mix or snow in the morning, windy. Highs in the mid to upper 30's.
Monday: Mostly sunny skies, seasonable. Highs in the lower 40's.
Tuesday: Clouds on the increase. Highs around 40.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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