NAM Model: Colder Weekend Scenario

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By Quincy Vagell on February 21, 2013, 8:15am Last modified: February 21, 2013, 6:38pm

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The 06z NAM came out earlier this morning, showing a colder solution for this weekend. The model still has a low track relatively close to the coast, but the distance is just far enough away that Connecticut stays on the cold side. The image above shows the 2-meter temperatures on the left and 850mb temperatures on the right. Notice that most of the interior is below freezing and even the shoreline is only near 34°F close to the ground.
If the forecast were right, inland areas would see mostly snow and perhaps some ice, with a slushy mixture and still some snow at the shoreline. It's certainly possible as the other overnight models hinted at the potential for low pressure to track slightly further to the east, which would allow for more cold air to funnel into Connecticut. Also note that the 06z NAM isn't all that much different than the 00z NAM. It only takes a shift of one or two degrees to be the difference between rain and a mix, or a mix and mostly snow.

This storm, as currently modeled, will likely have a sharp cutoff from heavy snow to little snow and elevation will probably also play a role. This means that the higher elevations have the best shot at significant amounts of snow.

Stay tuned to WXedge.com as new data is analyzed this morning.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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