Quincy's Weekend Snowfall Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on February 22, 2013, 11:45pm Last modified: February 23, 2013, 10:24am

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-Saturday: A mixture of light rain and light snow falls off and on through Saturday.
---Little or no daytime snow accumulation with temperatures above freezing.
-Saturday night: Mixed precip with pockets of freezing rain, changing to mainly snow.
-Sunday: Snow showers, may linger into the second half of the day in northeastern CT.

Final snowfall amounts for most areas will be on the low end, with 1 to 3 inches being my best estimate. I think the shoreline sees very little accumulation at all and the northern hills could possibly see up to 4" of snow.

Basically, the models have been trending weaker, more strung out and further east with a coastal low off the New England coast for Sunday. The interesting thing is now, just about all of the accumulating snow in the map above falls on Sunday. In fact, the models are now hinting at an inverted trough (Norlun) feature enhancing some snow into Sunday afternoon and evening. Even here, marginal temperatures should limit accumulations.

Other outlets and forecasters who had higher snowfall amounts were assuming that more precipitation fell with the coastal low. This does not appear to be the case now as most of the precipitation and good lift with the low stays south of New England.

This has been an extremely challenging forecast. I originally wanted to post a map on Thursday, but I simply did not have enough confidence to do so. The forecast above has relatively high confidence, but with the way the models have been handling this storm, it certainly still bears watching. If anything has a better shot at changing, it's the forecast for the second half of Sunday. Depending on where an axis of snow develops along a trough, additional snowfall is possible Sunday night.

Regional view: (click for full-sized graphic)

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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