Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on February 25, 2013, 10:45am Last modified: February 25, 2013, 3:02pm

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Technical Discussion:
High pressure in control today will give the region plenty of sunshine and perhaps the quietest day over the next six. The high remains in place through the overnight as low pressure across the lower Plains advances towards the Ohio Valley.
Tuesday starts quiet, but clouds increase throughout the day. High temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 40's, but the timing of clouds could offset those numbers. MOS  shows mid-40's, so will take a blend of the previous forecast and MOS guidance.
A wintry mix develops late Tuesday night inland with mainly rain along the shoreline. Have continued to favor a Euro/NAM blend as thermal profiles on those models make the most sense given the expected setup. High pressure just east of Maine shows a strong cold air damming signal across southern New England. Combine this with an occluded front remaining south of the area and temperatures should hover around freezing overnight.
The tricky part of the forecast will be determining what type of precipitation and how much snow/ice falls. The Euro/NAM are bullish with moderate snow accumulations inland and even some slush near the shoreline. Given very marginal 1000-850mb thicknesses (using Euro/NAM guidance), this could wind up as more of a sleet/freezing rain deal, as opposed to snow. Will focus on the details of this part of the forecast later on today.
Any mixed precipitation changes to rain and Wednesday looks quiet wet to start. Euro/NAM/GFS all indicate the potential for 0.75 to 1.00 inches of precipitation, if not more. Flooding may be a concern, especially closer to the shoreline. The temperature forecast for Wednesday is also very tricky. Have favored the cooler Euro 2m temperatures as a sharp gradient could result in mid/upper 30's in the NW hills to the mid or even upper 40's near the shore. The current forecast will bring inland areas to 40 and the shore to 44, but again, this may need to be adjusted with later forecasts.
Low pressure is slow to advance eastward for Thursday and residual moisture is forecast to hang around the area. Given cold temperatures aloft, but temperatures in the lower 40's during the daylight hours, went with rain/snow showers in the forecast. MOS guidance seems way too high with upper 40's to around 50 degree readings. Again, leaned closer to Euro 2m temperatures for the period.
Gradually improving conditions are expected for Friday and Saturday. 

Today: Mostly sunny and tranquil. Highs in the low to mid-40's.
Tonight: Mostly clear skies. Lows in the mid-20's inland to around 30 shore.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. PM wintry mix inland, rain shore. Highs in the lower 40's.
Wednesday: Rain in the morning, breezy. Highs near 40 inland, to mid-40's shore.
Thursday: A few snow and or rain showers. Highs in the low to mid-40's.
Friday: Remaining mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid-40's.
Saturday: Partly sunny skies. Highs in the low to mid-40's.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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