Mid-Week Scenarios: How Much Snow?

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By Quincy Vagell on March 4, 2013, 5:30pm Last modified: March 5, 2013, 12:52pm

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12z GFS ensemble forecast for total precipitation Wednesday through Friday.

A storm system is forecast to develop along the mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. As the storm moves northeastward, snow is expected to overspread the state. The computer models vary with their snowfall forecasts, ranging from light snow to heavy snow.

Snow develops on Wednesday and could linger into the day on Friday.

The trend with the computer models today has been to bring more snow into Connecticut. An exact forecast from three (3) days out usually does not pan out. This is why it's very important to look at the overall trends.

The European model showed the least snow last night, while the GFS model was showing the most. Now, the GFS has increased its own snowfall forecast, while all of the other models have trended snowier. It's very interesting that the GFS may be ahead of the Euro with this forecast, as the Euro is usually the more reliable of the two models.

Model overview...(keep in mind snowfall totals are MODEL guidance)
18z GFS: Snowfall totals generally 10-20". Very heavy, wet snow across the entire state. Areas near the coast could mix with rain for a while, with amounts on the low end of that range. The 12z GFS was on the order of about 6-12".

18z NAM: Snowfall totals generally 8-16". Very heavy, wet snow that could mix with rain for a time across southern and southeastern sections. Snowfall amounts are higher across northeastern CT and slightly lower across coastal New London County.

15z SREF: Snowfall totals generally 8-14". Also shows heavy, wet snow, but is colder than the NAM. The shoreline totals might be slightly lower.

12z Euro: Snowfall totals of about 2-4". Periods of light snow, with borderline temperatures. The model has taken a significant shift to the northwest. If the trend were to continue for the next run, amounts would be much higher than advertised here.

12z Canadian: Snowfall totals generally 5-10". A wintry mix ends as snow across the entire state. Snowfall amounts would be somewhat lower near the coast.

12z GFS  and 12z GFS ensembles: Snowfall totals generally 6-12". Similar with heavy, wet snow across the state.

09z SREF: Snowfall totals generally 6-12".

The next few slides will get into just a little bit more detail with snowfall amounts.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

Articles: 1305

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