Is Winter & the Snow Over?

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By Noah Bergren on March 11, 2013, 9:45am Last modified: March 12, 2013, 10:38am

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After temperatures in the 50's Sunday & Monday this week, and the clocks having just moved forward, many people are asking the question:
Is the snow over with for this winter yet?

The short answer to that is, no. However, I am not saying that CT will see more snow this month, I am just looking ahead to trends in the forecast.

Before I get into the possibility of another winter storm this month, it is worth nothing that CT has had its share of late-winter and early spring snowstorms. Yes, snowstorms. In fact, one of CT's top ranking Blizzard's was the April Fool's day Blizzard of 1997. 5" to as much as over 20" of snow fell in parts of the state, when just days before it was sunny and in the 60's.

With that said, people are asking, will we see more snow this month, or is it finally time to bring the golf clubs and baseball equipment out? My answer to that is, do not put away your winter coat and shovel just yet. This week's forecast finds warm and cloudy skies for today (Monday), followed by rain in association with a cold front on Tuesday. This will usher in colder weather for the end of the week, after Wednesday.

With this, looking at the "whole" regional and global weather picture, it appears as if a favorable blocking-type setup may re-establish itself in the Eastern part of North America, which is one of the pieces of the puzzle for a snow event in CT. The computer models are in fairly good agreement bringing back the 30's temperatures for the end of this week and into the weekend, but after that they go haywire. The all-reliable, "holy-grail" computer model, the Euro (ECMWF), is indicating the potential for a large scaled snowstorm in CT next Monday & Tuesday. NOTE: this is wayyy to far out in the weather department to speculate, but the ECMWF is pretty accurate from long range. What generally happens is, the Euro will show this potential for snow early next week for a few runs this week, then later this week the Euro will back off from the potential for a storm, and then bring back the potential for a storm in this weekend's runs. However, please note that I am by NO means saying this will happen, and it might not, but the potential (very low) is there. Also note that it is difficult to get a snowstorm this late in the season-it has to be very cold through all layers of the atmosphere, and snow heavily enough to accumulate on the roadways. The forecast here certainly will change, but a 5% chance exists for an early spring snowstorm next week.  As one would figure, (given its recent performances), the GFS doesn't see any potential for a storm next Monday at all.

Stay tuned to WXedge.com & News 8 for updates through the week this week, should the models continue to indicate another winter storm potential early next week. However, don't put your winter coat's and shovel's away yet!

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Noah Bergren

Town: Berlin, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since February 2012.

Articles: 23

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