Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on March 16, 2013, 10:45am Last modified: March 17, 2013, 1:02am

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Technical Discussion:
Low pressure moves east off of the mid-Atlantic coast today. Radar and satellite imagery indicate that clouds hang around and a few flurries may pass through the area.
High pressure begins to move in on Sunday and this will establish a cold air source leading into Monday. Low temperatures Sunday night will likely be a few degrees below average with 850mb temperatures down around -12C. Some of the sheltered areas may fall into the teens. It should be noted that MOS guidance has had a bias over the past several weeks to be too low with minimum temperatures, so did not go quite as those forecasts.
The next storm approaches late in the day on Monday. Model consensus leads to a relatively high confidence forecast in frozen precipitation for much of the interior Monday night.. The exact amounts of snow/ice as well as precipitation types at the shore remain a bit unclear. There is the potential for moderate snow/ice inland and perhaps even light amounts near the shoreline. The European model continued to show 6"+ of snow for much of the interior. 
The colder trend appears to have leveled off, but the 06z NAM was showing mostly frozen/freezing precipitation for northern parts of the state throughout the entire event.
Given a low track expected to be over or just south of CT, temperatures should rise above freezing in most areas during the day on Tuesday before the region gets dryslotted. It is in the northern hills where that transition to plain rain will take the longest.
Wind also pick up with an increased pressure gradient and breezy conditions should linger into the day on Wednesday. Temperatures stay below average during the day throughout the period as 850mb temperatures hold well below 0C. 

Today: Mostly cloudy, a few passing flurries. Highs in the upper 30's to around 40.
Tonight: Becoming mostly clear. Lows in the mid to upper 20's.
Sunday: Plenty of sunshine. Highs in the mid to upper 30's inland, near 40 shore.
Monday: Increasing clouds. A wintry mix developing at night. Highs in the upper 30's.
Tuesday: Patchy AM ice, otherwise periods of rain/wind. Highs in the upper 30's to mid-40's.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and breezy. Highs in the low to mid-40's.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies. Highs around 40.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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