Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on March 23, 2013, 10:10am Last modified: March 24, 2013, 9:49am

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Technical Discussion:
A cutoff low to the northeast of Maine will continue to keep the area under the influence of a cooler than average air-mass. Radar imagery and model QPFs indicate that a few stray flurries are possible. Sky cover and satellite data show mostly sunny skies, so any flakes should be very isolated and may not be associated with much in the way of cloud-cover.
Sunday is a tranquil day with similar high temperatures to those of Saturday. Clouds increase late Sunday night ahead of the next storm system.
Snow is likely on Monday as low pressure develops along the mid-Atlantic coast. It's still a very delicate forecast for several reasons. The NAM, which had backed off from a significant snowfall on Friday has now trended back to that same idea. The GFS/Euro/GGEM still favor a glancing blow with only light amounts of precipitation. It should be noted that the GFS and Euro did take slight trends overnight closer to the coast with the center of low pressure, but that precipitation fields did not necessarily reflect that.
Confidence in at least some snow is relatively high. The Euro ensembles showed a noticeable spread with more than 1/5 of the members bringing 0.5" precipitation amounts into the state, even for inland areas. The SREF mean is a blend between the extreme NAM and the balance of the operational models.
Another consideration is temperatures near the ground. This really complicates the forecast as temperatures aloft are plenty cold for snow. In fact, snow growth could be impressive for late March with 850mb temperatures around -5C. MOS guidance temperatures in the mid-40's have been discounted and favor highs near 40. With that said, it could be hard to get accumulating snow during the daylight hours unless precipitation rates are heavy. Monday night is favored for the most accumulating snow, assuming current forecasts verify.
The current thinking is that most of the state could see a light snow accumulation. Later model runs will need to be monitored very closely. Best guess that is about 0.2 to 0.4" of precipitation falls on average, resulting in perhaps 1-3" of snow across the state. This is a preliminary estimate and those amounts could change significantly.
Clearing skies and moderating temperatures are expected for the middle of the week. Highs could touch 50, especially by Thursday as 850mb temperatures are forecast to rise to around -4C.

Today: Sunshine, a few stray flurries are possible. Highs in the mid-40's.
Tonight: Mostly clear and chilly. Lows in the mid to upper 20's.
Sunday: Fair skies, tranquil. Highs in the mid-40's.
Monday: Periods of light snow. Highs in the upper 30's to around 40.
---Potential light snow accumulation state-wide.
Tuesday: Clearing skies, milder. Highs in the mid-40's.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40's.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs around 50.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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