Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on May 13, 2013, 9:50am Last modified: May 13, 2013, 1:26pm

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Technical Discussion:
A large trough across the Northeast will result in unseasonably chilly conditions over the next day or so. Today, with 850mb temperatures below freezing, expect that many areas will struggle out of the 50's for high temperatures. The typically warmer valleys and coastal plain have the best shot at touching 60 degrees. 
A chilly night is on tap with a strong possibility of a frost for inland areas. Light winds and cold temperatures aloft will allow temperatures to fall into the 30's for just about all of the state. Given the timing with respect to the growing season, this could be a moderate impact event. The NWS has posted a Freeze Warning for lower Litchfield County and Frost Advisories for most other inland areas.
Cool conditions linger on Tuesday, although it should be a couple of degrees milder. Moderating temperatures aloft should allow highs to reach the lower 60's. MAV MOS guidance looks several degrees too warm, so leaned towards the cooler EC and NAM 2m temperatures.
Clouds increase on Wednesday ahead of an approaching warm front. A few showers are likely during the evening and nighttime hours as the front and a wave of low pressure pass through the area. It should be noted that model forecast bulk shear is very impressive, with both the NAM and GFS indicating 60kt or more of shear at night. With virtually no instability, this does not look like a classic severe weather setup. With that said, some heavier showers and even a thundershower could cause gusty winds. 0-1km helicity on the NAM increased to over 300 m2/s2 at night. This threat will be monitored and should 12z model guidance look more favorable, a severe weather outlook may be issued. If warmer air can work in to increase lapse rates, that would certainly increase the threat.
Fair skies and warmer temperatures are forecast for Thursday through Saturday. A fairly zonal flow is expected to keep conditions dry and with EC 850mb temperatures in the range of +8 to +11C, highs should make it into the 70's, especially inland.

Today: Partly sunny, but cooler. Highs in the upper 50's to around 60.
Tonight: Chilly with widespread frost inland. Lows in the low to mid-30's inland, upper 30's shore.
Tuesday: Fair skies and slightly milder. Highs in the lower 60's.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds, PM showers. Highs in the mid-60's.
Thursday: Sun and clouds, warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 70's inland, lower 70's shore.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid-70's inland, around 70 shore.
Saturday: Fair skies. Highs in the mid-70's inland, upper 60's shore.

Note: Inland temperatures are an average. Often times, outlying areas may be a few degrees cooler than the advertised temperature on the 6-day graphic.

Meriden max/min temperature forecast:
Day 1: 60/34
Day 2: 63/38
Day 3: 67/51
Day 4: 78/53
Day 5: 76/49
Day 6: 74

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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