Tornado Risk Today?

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By Joey W on July 2, 2013, 8:57am Last modified: July 2, 2013, 8:58am

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0-6km wind shear forecast valid Monday at 11 a.m.

Yesterday, some of us got caught off guard.  One of the reasons is that the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK put most of Connecticut and surrounding areas under a 2% tornado risk.  Usually, if there were to be several Tornado Warnings across New England, the Storm Prediction Center would put us under at least a 5% risk.  Another reason was that the CAPE values were not very high, and helicity was only expected to be 150 m^2/s^2 TOPS.  

Anyway, today, unfortunately, we have a chance of some storms rotating.  However, the good news is that both surface CAPE and MUCAPE (Most Unstable CAPE) remain low, (100-1000 J/KG).  Lifted Index values are likely to stay in between 0 and -2 today, so that also lowers the chance of severe weather.  Also, there will be little or no updraft velocity today during the times of when these "storms" will move through.  Updraft velocity or "atmospheric convection" is another way to determine if there is a lot of instability.  Basically, it tells us the chance of an updraft in any thunderstorm at any height (850 mb, 500 mb, 300 mb,), like echo tops.

What IS concerning me is the amount of 0-6 km shear during the 18-00z timeframe, which could cause storms to rotate, especially across western and central Connecticut.

Remember, CAPE values are still high, and there is some instability.  

Stay tuned.

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Joey W

Town: New Haven Area  

Reporting for WXedge since September 2012.

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