WXedge Forecast Challenge Details

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By WXedge Staff on July 24, 2013, 4:00pm Last modified: July 25, 2013, 12:46pm

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Want to put your Connecticut forecasting skills to the test against other weather enthusiasts from around the state?

For the challenge, a different location in Connecticut will be chosen every two weeks and it will be your responsibility to make a forecast for that location. Each week will consist of 5 days of forecasting (Monday through Friday) and you will be expected to forecast
-high temperature,
-low temperature,
-maximum wind speed and
-total precipitation
for each day. The forecast will be due by 8:00:00 p.m. EDT the evening before the day you are forecasting for.

***PRACTICE WEEK***
July 29 through August 2nd: Bradley International Airport (KBDL) in Windsor Locks (near Hartford).

***OFFICIAL CONTEST***
August 5-9 and 12-16: Bradley International Airport (KBDL) in Windsor Locks (near Hartford).

August 19-23 and 26-30: Siksorky Airport (KBDR) in Stratford (near Bridgeport).

September 2-6 and 9-13: Windham Airport (KIJD) in Windham (near Willimantic).

September 16-20 and 23-27: Groton-New London Airport (KGON).

Forecasting:
-Forecasts are due by 8 p.m. the evening before, so you will be making forecasts from Sunday-Thursday.
-It is your responsibility to submit a forecast. No one can make a forecast for you and in the event that there is a computer-related issue that prevents you from making a forecast, please refer below to the "Troubleshooting" section.
-Official temperatures, precipitation and wind speeds are from ASOS airport stations. The data is view-able publicly and make take a day or so to become official after a day is over.
-The period you are forecasting for is from 12 a.m. to 12 a.m.
-See the "Resources" section below for more information on where to view data, forecasts, how to submit forecasts, etc.
-You are able to forecast more than one day in advance if you wish to do so. This is helpful if you know you will be unable to forecast on one day, for example, so you can make multiple forecasts at once if you choose to do so.

Scoring:
-Temperatures are rounded to the near degree Fahrenheit.
-Wind speeds are rounded to the nearest MPH.
-Precipitation is rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of an inch.

Error points:
-High and low temperatures. One error point will be given for each degree difference between your forecast temperature and the verified temperature.
-Wind speed. 0.5 error points will be given for each MPH difference between your forecast wind speed and the verified wind speed.
-Precipitation. 0.3 error points will be given for each 0.01" difference between your forecast precipitation total and the verified precipitation total. A trace of precipitation (for example, mist or fog, will be scored as 0.00")

Scores:
-At the end of each day, week and period, the forecaster with the least total number of error points will be the leader. The forecaster with the least total number of cumulative points at the end of the contest will be the winner.
-The scores will be posted on WXedge.com daily and e-mailed out to all participants on a weekly basis.
-Anyone who has a question or concern about the scoring can e-mail (quincy . vagell@wtnh.com) or send a direct message on Twitter or Facebook to @WXedge with the inquiry.

What if I forget to forecast?
-No worries! Each location has 10 possible forecast days, but your top 6 days will be used with up to 4 of your highest error days being removed from scoring. This is in place in case you forget to make a forecast, make a mistake or have an off-day with a poor forecast.

Eligible forecasters:
-Anyone who is a WXedge Contributor is eligible to forecast.
-If you'd like to join WXedge, apply here 

Troubleshooting:
-I'm not sure how to forecast. What can I do?
--We're going to have a practice run for one week to let you get a feel for how you're making a forecast.
-What if I can't submit a forecast or get an error message when submitting one?
--The alternate ways to submit a forecast will be via e-mail (quincy.vagell@wtnh.com) or sending a direct message on Twitter or Facebook to @WXedge with the forecast.forecast. If there is an extenuating circumstance, that case will be considered.
-What if I make a mistake when submitting a forecast?
--Proofread your forecast before submitting it. You also have the ability to submit as many forecasts as you want up until the 8:00:00 p.m. EDT deadline.

Resources:
-Here is the link with the official daily climate data:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/dailystns.shtml
-Where can I find MOS forecast data for the locations?
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/synop/products/bullform.all.htm
-Where can I find the forecast submission form?
Every day on WXedge a new form will be posted to make a forecast.
Check your e-mail for the link, since only WXedge Team members are eligible to forecast.

Keep an eye out for more information as it will be provided in the coming days.

Click here for a practice form that contestants will use to submit forecasts.

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WXedge Staff

Town: New Haven, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since February 2012.

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