Detailed 6-Day Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on July 29, 2013, 9:30am Last modified: July 29, 2013, 1:50pm

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Technical Discussion:
A cold front draped across the area will eventually shift eastward, allowing for less humid air to move into Connecticut. Since the mid-levels are relatively dry, little to no precipitation is expected with the frontal passage. With that said, the higher resolution models hint at some weak convective activity this afternoon. A few sprinkles or a stray shower is left in the forecast, otherwise conditions should be dry. Have kept the temperatures below MAV MOS guidance due to cold advection and verified temperatures over the weekend, which were also below guidance.
Fair skies and seasonable temperatures are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. As an upper level shortwave pulls away north of New England, a temporary zonal flow sets up across the Northeast. Expecting highs to average in the lower 80's given 850mb temperatures around +11 to +12C.
Clouds build on Thursday along with possible showers. A broad trough is modeled to move into the Great Lakes by Thursday. The computer models are in fair agreement with some shower and thunderstorm activity moving in, although there are timing differences. With poor lapse rates relatively low CAPE values, severe thunderstorms are not a concern. Clouds and precipitation should hold temperatures in the 70's to near 80 degrees.
A leftover shower or two is possible early Friday. As the trough rotates across southeastern Canada per model guidance, moisture begins to lift north of Connecticut. Drying conditions are expected later Friday into Saturday along with temperatures near seasonable levels.

Today: Clouds, some sun. A stray shower? Highs in the lower 80's.
Tonight: Becoming mostly clear, cooler. Lows in the upper 50's to lower 60's.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and pleasant. Highs in the lower 80's.
Wednesday: Fair skies and seasonable. Highs in the low to mid-80's.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Highs in the upper 70's to around 80.
Friday: AM shower? Otherwise sunshine and clouds. Highs in the lower 80's.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid-80's.

Note: Forecast temperatures on the six day graphic are an average.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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