Slight Risk Includes Tornadoes Today
By Quincy Vagell on August 15, 2012, 1:20pm
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The midday update from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes a 2% risk of tornadoes across most of Connecticut.
Discussion:
The combination of an approaching frontal system and some daytime heating is increasing the treat of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms today. The threat also includes possible tornadic development as the column of air in the atmosphere is showing slight signs of twisting and turning. Some severe thunderstorms have already hammered portions of western Long Island with nickle-sized hail and flooding rainfall.
Forecast:
Isolated thunderstorms are possible anywhere across the state through this evening. The biggest threats at this point include flooding rainfall and dangerous lightning. With that said, some stronger storms may feature gusty winds and hail. The threat of tornadoes is relatively low, but a weak isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
A line of thunderstorms may develop sometime between 4 and 6 p.m. across western Connecticut and track eastward. Isolated storms can also develop earlier this afternoon in any location. Any thunderstorms should tend to weaken and diminish after 8 or 9 p.m. this evening.
Analysis:
Satellite imagery has shown some interesting wind flows and boundaries in the vicinity of Long Island. Some of the echoes have indicated moderate to significant shearing of winds, which could slightly elevate the tornado potential. The SPC outlook looks good, highlighting the potential generally away from Litchfield County. The threat remains low, but needs to be monitored. Bulk wind shear values are marginal for tornadic development, but areas of moderate helicity are showing up near the coast of SW CT. With some fair CAPE values in the range of about 1,000 J/kg and sunshine trying to break through, convection and thunderstorm development may increase in expansion across the area this afternoon. A line of thunderstorms is projected to develop by late afternoon in western CT as seen on the HRRR. A few lone strong to severe cells could develop ahead of that possible line over the next few hours. Those cells, if they form, will need to be closely monitored for possible rotation aloft.
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