Friday's Severe T-Storm Analysis
By Quincy Vagell on August 17, 2012, 9:40am
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An approaching cold front, combined with warm and humid air, may help kick off isolated strong to severe thunderstorms later today.
Discussion:
As of 9:30 a.m., a cold front is passing through western New York and western Pennsylvania. Ahead of this front, there is a warm and moderately humid air mass in place. Daytime heating will allow surface temperatures to reach into the 80s across the area, The cold front is expected to approach eastern New York late this afternoon, potentially providing that "spark" to kick off a few storms across the region.
Forecast:
As sunshine gives way to a few afternoon clouds, high temperatures should generally range from the lower 80s near the immediate shoreline to the mid-80s inland. No storms are expected until sometime after 4 p.m. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms could from by late to mid-afternoon, but the main target is early this evening. By that time, the cold front will be getting closer to the NY/CT border. Because the front is expected to come in rather late, thunderstorms are not expected to be widespread.
More numerous showers and weaker thunderstorms are possible after 8 p.m.
Severe potential:
Although the area will have good daytime heating, causing the atmosphere to become moderately unstable, there will not be a good "trigger" mechanism for severe storms until this evening.
-With that said, a few late-day storms could become strong to severe.
-The highest risk for severe storms is across Litchfield and Fairfield Counties.
-The time-frame of these potential storms is from 5 to 8 p.m.
Read on for a more detailed analysis, as well as more details on the threat.
