Tracking Storm Development
By Quincy Vagell on August 17, 2012, 3:30pm
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3:30 p.m.
The cold front is approaching the capital district near Albany and expends back into northeastern Pennsylvania. So far, no severe thunderstorms have developed, but a few heavy thundershowers have formed along the frontal boundary.
Through 5:30 p.m.
A few isolated showers or thundershowers could pop up across Connecticut, although the threat of severe weather is fairly low. The cold front itself will slowly move towards the area, still being west of even the NY/CT border by 5:30 p.m.
Any showers/storms can feature heavy rain and lightning.
Analysis:
CAPE values ahead of the cold front only show marginal instablity. Areas east of the front have seen values in excess of 1,000 J/kg. However, with relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates and low shear values, thunderstorms are having a tough time becoming very strong. As the front advances eastward, a few storms could become strong or possibly severe, although the highest risk for that is further south into southeastern PA.
Find previous updates in the following slides.
